Post-Election Thoughts from The Russ Belt
Quick reactions to a very rough night.
Folks,
We lost. Very bad situation for our climate, democracy here and abroad, etc. The loss was broad enough that you can probably find explanations that support any of your prior beliefs. And while my recent posts were overly optimistic on Harris, a few people have asked for my reaction. So I’ve written up some short-ish thoughts below. Love.
Nearly every incumbent leader around the world has lost following covid era inflation, across party and ideological lines. Inflation and Biden’s unpopularity turned out to be the story of 2024, not Jan. 6 or Dobbs/Roe. This post won’t let Dems off the hook. But I don’t think Trump is electoral magic — more that he was the “change” candidate in a change year. To state the obvious, Harris did not do enough to differentiate from a very unpopular incumbent. And had Republicans run a less polarizing alternative against Harris, like a Nikki Haley or Marco Rubio, I think they could’ve swept the suburbs like Reagan and flipped some traditionally blue states too (Trump won by ~3%, whereas Reagan won by ~10% and ~18%). This feels like a Carter redux playing out on inflation (voters really, really hate it), which has big implications for how politicians respond to the next financial crisis (they’ll be very afraid of any moves to favor protecting jobs over keeping consumer prices down). More on how inflation has shaped global elections from David Dayen.
The big theme of The Russ Belt — my Harris call notwithstanding — has been that we need to be extremely humble about how difficult it is to build a winning coalition in a country where huge swaths are anti-establishment, 75% of voters self-identify as “moderate” or “conservative,” and under 40% have a college degree. I think this election shows that we were not humble or creative enough. I was encouraged by Harris’ pivots in various directions, but they didn’t work. My shorthand quip to friends dating back to early Trump was “Left But Not Woke.” This was directionally, but not exactly, right — I later evolved to saying that America is left of center on economics (remember, Trump threw out the Bush-Romney attacks on Social Security, Medicare etc., altho I expect he’ll now work to gut them), and typically right of center on culture (more below on immigration, crime). I think this underlying theme — to be informed and realistic about the baseline makeup and attitudes of American voters, because if you’re reading my stuff you probably live in a cultural bubble — remains very true. And talking about how to build a winning electoral majority within these constraints is hard. As lefty author Matthew Sitman put it, “One thing that needs to happen is for the left to be able to talk about this descriptive reality—that the most under-represented quadrant is economically populist/socially conservative—without it being instantly taken to mean We Need More Racism / Sexism / Homophobia / Transphobia.”
The Big Trade of the last thirty years — education polarization — marches on stronger than ever, and across racial lines. I’ve been a broken record on how the big story of global politics over the last 30+ years has been major re-sorting of voters along educational lines. Trump rapidly accelerated the trend of folks without a four-year degree — who make up a whopping ~2 in 3 Americans — towards Republicans. Exit polls are usually just directional and should be taken with a grain of salt, but they show something undeniable: an overwhelming shift of non-white voters towards Trump. Biden’s (surprisingly successful on the merits) moves to bring back manufacturing, keep unemployment down etc. were not at all successful politically, especially with non-college voters across racial lines — swamped by lingering anger about inflation, immigration, and crime (while violent crime has come down, many argue smaller but more visible disorder-type issues have gone up).
The media environment has changed. We need podcast-ready entertainers and/or working class aligned candidates. Many voters are either misinformed or slow to shift opinions about the issues above. The reality is most people now get their news from podcasts, social media, etc. Setting aside what free and fair elections look like going forward, campaigns need to run candidates who can truly “go everywhere” and, as Ezra Klein puts it, have great “software”— able to respond immediately to a question in an authentic non-scripted way while scoring political points. Obama has very good software. (Trump has no software, and just says the first thing that comes to mind.) This is not a ding on Harris, who worked with the electorate, timeline, personal bio, and set of skills that she had. But careful, “meritocratic” lawyer types might not be the right move for Dems going forward (at least until Obama-esque broader appeal is proven). We should seriously consider entertainers and/or more working class-aligned candidates (economic populist Senate candidates Dan Osborn, Jon Tester, and Sherrod Brown lost narrowly, but outperformed Harris the most in their states) (maybe Sherrod runs now to fill the open Vance seat?). As I wrote a few times, nearly half of voters thought Harris was “too liberal” throughout her short campaign, far more than found Trump “too conservative.” I am 100% sure gender and race come into play there, but I don’t think this means women and non-white candidates can’t win tough elections — they do it all the time. I really think that cultural vibe (class-wise) and “software” really matter. (On this note, I was happy to see Ruben Gallego, who I wrote about in 2022 as a strong potential candidate due to smart, blunt rhetoric on the economy, race, and class, win a Senate seat.)
The midterm results in 2022 screwed us. If anything, my recent predictions of a suburban wave went back to the midterms, where Jan. 6 and Dobbs drove a strong enough outcome to also give Biden the confidence to run again. This was a misread. Everyone knows that midterm electorates are always a lot more educated and suburban than presidential year electorates. But that over-performance made many overly optimistic on Biden, and on America’s stance on MAGA. Had Dems been blown out in 2022, I think Biden would’ve been pushed or stepped aside earlier, and we may have had a different race. But of course back to point 1 — this was a tough year for every global incumbent party. (Also, with Republicans now officially poised to block judicial confirmations for years to come, will make a final call for Justice Sotomayor to quickly retire, respectfully.)
While this post is very focused on electoral politics, there is of course organizing and volunteering, including outside of elections, to help one another and the planet. I encourage everyone to get together, hang with friends, and see what comes next. That’s all I’ve got today folks. <3
AI-generated image of a map of America slash an American flag swirling psychedelically. Why not.
good thoughts