Enjoy a cold IPA
Archive: Sept. 27, 2022
Welcome back, folks! This is a semi-regular email I write for fun about upcoming elections – just reply to opt out, no worries.
Today I will share a new little theory, which I’m calling the IPA. I promise it’s extremely exciting, if you keep reading (yes, this is clickbait).
Then – spoiler alert – I will suggest donating to senate candidate and Wisconsin Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes, who is effectively tied with incumbent Ron Johnson, one of the most overtly dangerous election deniers in office. I picked Barnes because, unlike most prominent Dem candidates, he is being significantly outspent and needs some help. With just six weeks until election day, control of congress remains fully in play.
This IPA theory thing starts with a quick look back at 2016 (shudder).
Trump The “Moderate”
Trump entered the 2016 Republican primary as a joke and longshot, and ended up president. You may think he did it by saying outrageous things, and you’d be right. But his ramblings were clownish, not random:
A lifelong con man, Trump identified and ran on the specific parts of the GOP platform that were popular with voters, and ran against the parts that weren’t (unlike Jeb!).
His resulting campaign was a grab bag of anti-immigrant nativism and racism – he was the original anti-Obama “birther” after all – combined with what people perceived as moderation on economics. For example, promising to protect the very popular Social Security and Medicare programs (he didn't), lamenting the impact of trade on American jobs (a popular message for swing states), and running as a fed up businessman who wanted to raise taxes on himself (he did the opposite). He even opposed the unpopular Iraq War, claiming he always had (wrong).
As a result, and to the surprise of many, voters repeatedly viewed him as the most moderate Republican nominee in generations.
Many of these were not hot topics – but Trump made them salient. For example, while undocumented immigration was actually in decline, the racist yet memorable “Build the Wall” slogan renewed attention on the issue – without alienating as many Americans as one would hope (sadly immigration has long been really tough politically for Dems).
Dems should not act like Trump. But we should learn what we can from his unlikely rise, and use it to help win elections and pass good policies.
IPA – The “Interesting-Popular Axis”
To recap, Trump combined being interesting – the guy is a reality TV character – with drawing attention to positions where he has surprisingly high levels of support. (What happened in 2020, you ask? Trump governed highly erratically as president, driving massive interest in politics and turnout on both sides; analyses point to independents and suburban voters switching to Biden as decisive.)
Okay, but what is “IPA”? Imagine “Be Interesting” and “Be Popular” on a graph. Dems should try and do things that put them high up on each axis. Specifically:
Be Interesting. Dems should try to be exciting and interesting. Capturing public attention lets us set the terms of the debate and pick which topics the media covers. Media attention is a fixed quantity, and what makes headlines, along with underlying economic conditions, drives who wins. You don’t need to be Trump to saturate the media – Obama ’08 was a massive cultural phenomenon, and saxophone Bill Clinton was not boring. But remember Al Gore? John Kerry? I’d argue Biden is … somewhat more, um, entertaining than them (particularly The Onion version). But he mostly won because Trump was unpopular as president.
Be Popular. What didn’t voters like about Trump? This surprised me: his popularity dropped steeply just twice during his presidency. It wasn’t when he was acting unhinged, being openly corrupt, or recommending drinking bleach. Rather it was around two conservative economic pushes – when he passed the Republican tax cut for the wealthy, and when he tried to kill Obamacare. He was mostly about as popular as Biden is now, despite his antics (which is wild to me). But that begs the question:
Are You Sure You Know What’s Popular? A lot of us may be in a bubble. Did you know most voters are aged 50+ – with voters for the "younger" party, Dems, averaging a sprightly age 49? And that 2 in 3 voters do not hold a college degree?
Moderates and swing voters exist and are key to winning elections, they are all over the map on their views. Here’s a cheat code: voters in general tilt left on economic issues (!), and right on cultural issues.
So if you’re progressive, the majority of voters are much more likely to agree with you on economic policies – like raising the minimum wage – than to share your other values or core beliefs. (And while race and racism play a major role in our politics, Trump and Republicans continue to make surprising gains with Latino voters.)
What about turnout? Driving turnout of sporadic Dem voters is also key to winning. Research shows they will vote Dem if they vote, but are less progressive or ideological than consistent Dem voters. Similar to swing voters, we need to "Be Interesting and Popular" to persuade them to vote – via the media, paid ads, phonebanking, and door-knocking (I'll be knocking doors in LA-area swing district weekend).
The Limits of “Be Interesting & Popular.” We can’t let polls determine what we believe, or what progressive officials, candidates, activists, and media talk about. When our values are under attack, we protect them. To protect them effectively, we need to consider tradeoffs – if we draw attention to too many unpopular policies, then the other side wins and gets to pass their policies.
The nationalization of politics has forced centrist and progressive Dems to share a brand, and both wings of the party have their fair share of popular and unpopular stances – so picking which positions to actively spotlight is key.
Is the GOP sipping IPA–or bleach?
Lifelong Republican operatives must be incredibly frustrated that Trump made advocating for two of their favorite issues – promoting war and cutting our safety net – much more taboo. But they also won the presidency and got to actually do things that support their beliefs, like the Trump tax cuts, and appointing Supreme Court justices who quickly overturned Roe and now side with business 2x as often as the historical average.
Today, unlike the days of Romney or Paul Ryan, Republicans running for office try to keep their economic agenda quiet, because the specifics are wildly unpopular.
They’re more likely to push “culture war” issues – harmful views on sexuality, race, gender, the border, crime and policing etc. – which, as fucked up as it is, has given them their best odds vs. Dems who are promoting better healthcare, housing, and education. This year is no different: the core GOP strategy for 2022 is currently to “elevate clashes over crime and race.”
But Dems have an opening – Republicans have massively overreached on abortion, with terrible and extreme moves that have long been unpopular. And just as progressive and centrist Dems share a national brand, the handful of country club Republicans still in office are now linked to weird and overtly fascist QAnon support, bookburning talk, and the dangerous election denial discussed last week. Perhaps…perversely interesting? But very unpopular.
Someone I like.
For someone who embodies this “IPA” concept: I recommend this profile of Arizona Dem congressman Ruben Gallego, who will hopefully challenge and replace Senator Krysten Sinema in 2024. A working-class first-generation American, he worked as a line cook and janitor before Harvard, the military, and politics:
Gallego also gets the “Be Interesting” part; he picks fights with Republicans to strategically highlight their unpopular positions, swears a lot, etc.
Dude… who do I donate to?
Gallego doesn’t need your donations, but other Dems do. New reports show Republicans suddenly outspending Dems in key races, and control of congress remains essentially up for grabs.
Mandela Barnes is progressive who would be a reliable Dem vote, and is statistically tied in polling with a nutty and dangerous Republican senator (who actively tried to get Pence to overturn 2020) – Barnes could use your donation the most.
Until next week!